FiveThirtyEight has a post today comparing the early infrastructure of the Obama and Romney campaigns. Obama has a decided early advantage. Towards the end of the article, the author draws attention to the correlation between personalized voter communication and more votes. What 2012 will show is that that personal communication, while evermore important, is no longer dependent on expensive field offices and paid staff. We’ll start to see similar gains correlated to online outreach amongst peers on behalf of campaigns.
A national campaign’s localized outreach — field offices, staff and volunteers — helps a candidate contact voters in a more personal manner. Potential voters have been shown to be more receptive when contacted by someone in their community rather than by a television commercial or automated phone call.
In 2008, about a fourth of all voters were contacted in some way by the Obama campaign. Mr. McCain’s campaign contacted 18 percent of general-election voters. A FiveThirtyEight study from just after the 2008 election found that “each marginal 10-point advantage in contact rate translated into a marginal 3-point gain in the popular vote in that state.”